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2010年2月27日星期六

主要對沖基金買衰歐元

男人索羅斯他打低英倫銀行 在對沖基金的陰謀中心兌現當歐元下跌 卡爾西
Man who broke the Bank of England, George Soros, 'at centre of hedge funds plot to cash in on fall of the euro'By Karl West
Last updated at 8:52 AM on 27th February 2010

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1253791/Is-man-broke-Bank-England-George-Soros-centre-hedge-funds-betting-crisis-hit-euro.html

主要對沖基金買衰歐元 -華爾街日報
Major hedge funds making bets against the euro-WSJ

Friday, 26 February 2010 13:41
News - Latest News

Major hedge funds making bets against the euro-WSJ
Fri Feb 26, 2010 9:44am IST

* Big hedge funds taking positions against euro-WSJ
*大型對沖基金入市針對歐元 -華爾街日報
* SAC, Soros, others attend private dinner in NY-WSJ
*SAC,索羅斯,其他人等在紐約出席私人晚宴 -華爾街日報
* Some managers say euro may hit parity with dollar-WSJ
*有些經理表示,歐元可能會與美元見平價 -華爾街日報
* Traders also make bearish bets on euro-WSJ
*交易商亦買歐元跌 -華爾街日報
NEW YORK, Feb 25 (Reuters) - Some major hedge funds are making substantial bets against the euro as Greece's debt crisis rages, the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday.
紐約 2月25日(路透社) - 一些主要對沖基金都在作大數量賭注針對歐元,因為希臘的債務危機肆虐,華爾街日報週四報導。
Representatives of SAC Capital Advisors LP, Soros Fund Management LLC and others attended a private dinner in New York on Feb 8 at which a small group of hedge fund managers argued that the euro EUR= would likely fall to parity with the U.S. dollar, the newspaper said, citing people close to the situation.
SAC資本顧問LP代表,索羅斯基金管理公司和其他人等,2月8日在紐約參加私人晚宴, 在那一個小組的對沖基金經理爭論,歐元 EUR =可能會下降到與美元平價,報紙引述接近情況的人士說。
The "idea dinner" was hosted by boutique research and brokerage firm Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co. Three portfolio managers at the dinner spoke about investments related to the European debt crisis, the Journal said.

The euro has lost over 10 percent since late November as fiscal woes in Greece intensified, leading to a huge sell-off by investors.

SAC manager Aaron Cowen said all possible outcomes from the Greek debt crisis would drive down the value of the euro further, according to the newspaper report. But it added that SAC's trading position on the euro was unclear.

Brigade Capital hedge fund head Donald Morgan said the Greek crisis will likely spread and eventually affect U.S. companies, municipalities and Treasury securities.

David Einhorn, president of Greenlight Capital Inc, told the dinner he was bullish on gold because a pick-up in inflation was likely, according to the report.

An unidentified Soros manager said interest rates would likely increase, the Journal said.

Einhorn, George Soros of Soros Fund Management, SAC Capital Advisors, Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co, and Brigade Capital were not immediately contactable for comment on the article.

Last week traders at Goldman Sachs & Co (GS.N), Bank of America Corp's (BAC.N) Merrill Lynch unit and Barclays Plc (BARC.L) placed bearish bets on the euro on behalf of investors in a move separate from the hedge fund dinner, the Journal reported, citing traders.

The euro hit a one-year low against the yen EURJPY=R on Thursday and lost 0.4 percent against the dollar at $1.3485 concerns over a potential downgrade of Greece's debt, while borrowing costs for peripheral euro zone countries rose.

Safe-haven government bonds firmed.

Credit agency Standard & Poor's said on Wednesday it may downgrade Greece's BBB-plus rating by one or two notches within a month, citing downside risks to growth that could hinder the country's deficit-cutting plan.

Moody's Investors Service said Athens would need to enact its fiscal reform plans as promised if it was to avoid a downgrade and Fitch Ratings said that, barring surprises, it expected to keep its BBB-plus rating unchanged for the next few months. (Reporting by Clare Baldwin and Jennifer Ablan; Editing by Kim Coghill)

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http://www.theflucase.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=2838%3Amajor-hedge-funds-making-bets-against-the-euro-wsj&catid=1%3Alatest-news&Itemid=64&lang=en

炒家開集思會圍剿歐元
(明報)2010年2月27日 星期六 05:10
【明報專訊】《華爾街日報》昨報道,一批國際重量級炒家和對冲基金,已開始大舉圍剿歐元,以衍生工具產品交易打擊高風險歐元區國家和大規模沽空歐元。報道透露,一班星級對冲基金經理本月初還開了一次「集思晚宴」,研究如何做淡歐元,他們指歐元兌美元甚可能跌至一算,意即歐元還有跌近三成的空間。

據知情人士所述,SAC Capital Advisors和索羅斯領導的Soros Fund Management等對冲基金業巨頭,本月初進行了一次閉門「集思晚宴」,揭開大舉狙擊歐元的序幕。在「集思晚宴」後3日,歐元便再遭拋售,兌美元匯率跌至1.36美元以下,該周沽空歐元合約數目更多達6萬張的11年最高紀錄。

索羅斯旗下基金參與
知情人士稱,該次聚會在曼哈頓一私人會所內進行,由SAC基金經理歐文(Aaron Cowen)提議。歐文認為,與希臘債務危機有關的所有可能結果,都對歐元不利。會上,一批全球頂級對冲基金經理稱,預計歐元兌美元會跌至1:1水平。對冲基金經理霍夫施密特(Hans Hufschmid)在會上稱,「這是賺大錢的機會」。另一對冲基金主管摩根(Donald Morgan)則在會上指出,希臘的債務猶如骨牌的最前端,一旦倒下將帶來連鎖反應,最終會殃及美國公司、市政債券以及美國國債。

揚言歐元兌美元跌至一算
去年12月,歐元兌美元還處於1.51水平,但現已大跌至1.35水平。根據《華爾街日報》的說法,由於炒家一般會以20倍左右的槓桿來下注,所以若歐元兌美元跌至一算,他們獲得的利潤將極高。若炒家以500萬美元資金,通過槓桿進行1億美元交易,若押對市場走勢下,只消5%的價格波動便能帶來100%的回報。有交易員透露,高盛、美林和巴克萊的交易員上周都有幫投資者大規模做淡歐元。

沽空歐元 大購多國CDS
對冲基金們作出同一傾向的交易並不違法,除非被監管機構認定為勾結行為。2008年時,一批對冲基金和銀行家也曾搞過類似的「集思會」,會上Greenlight Capital總裁艾因霍恩(David Einhorn)等對冲基金經理相信,雷曼等公司前景黯淡,於是大舉沽空,加速了這些公司股價暴瀉。艾因霍恩也出席了今次的歐元狙擊集思會。

與1990年代炒家狙擊英鎊時不同,對冲基金如今還為沽空歐元開闢了一條新戰線﹕信貸違約掉期(CDS)。消息稱,包括著名對冲基金經理約翰保爾森(John Paulson)領導的保爾森公司(Paulson & Co)在內的部分最大型對冲基金,都有購買防範希臘主權違約風險的CDS。保爾森以近年沽空美國樓市和英國銀行股而聞名,被形容為新一代的索羅斯。不過知情人士補充,保爾森公司雖曾建立了大量歐元空倉,但後來又平了倉,現在開始做好歐元。

去年底,對冲基金紛紛買入葡萄牙、意大利、希臘和西班牙的CDS,並開始沽空歐元。交易員說,對冲基金最近已向銀行出售CDS,讓他們對冲手持歐洲政府債券的風險。對冲基金和各大行的行動令西歐高危國憤怒。

希臘指4金融機構造市
希臘報章上周稱,希臘情報局已認定4家金融機構有份造市,他們是Moore Capital、保爾森公司、富達和Brevan Howard。但對冲基金都稱他們與歐元下跌無關,反指高危國家政府應為財務管理不善而負責。

華爾街日報/紐約時報
http://hk.news.yahoo.com/article/100226/4/grbv.html

恍如索羅斯拖垮英鎊翻版
(明報)2010年2月27日 星期六 05:10
【明報專訊】炒家大鱷這次擊狙歐元行動,令人回想起索羅斯在1990年代初搞垮英鎊時的伎倆。1970年代末,包括英國在內的歐洲多個國家為推動經濟一體化,首先成立了「歐洲貨幣匯率機制」(ERM),機制要求各成員國的匯率波動都不能超過15%,否則要入市干預。1990年代末,德國統一開支巨大引發通脹壓力,德國不得不加息吸引外資,令其他歐洲貨幣面臨貶值壓力。對於英國而言,要想維持匯率,就要加息,但此舉又會打擊本國經濟。

索羅斯當年便看準英國經濟脆弱和德國堅持加息,開始大規模沽空英鎊。索羅斯的行動十分堅決,拋售70億美元的英鎊、買入60億美元的德國馬克。儘管英倫銀行大舉購入英鎊托市,最後甚至動用300億美元的外匯儲備,但仍不敵索羅斯,英鎊繼續暴跌。1992年9月16日,英國被迫正式退出ERM,直到今天,英國仍沒有加入歐元區。在英鎊狙擊戰中,索羅斯大賺10億美元,令他成為華爾街最賺錢的投資者,被封為「令英倫銀行破產的人」。

索羅斯警告:歐元恐瓦解
索羅斯上周警告,若歐盟不能解決財務問題,歐元有可能瓦解。雖然分析家普遍認為,歐元完全崩潰、重蹈英鎊1992年覆轍的機會並不大,皆因如今要推倒歐元極為困難——歐元市場交易規模非常大,每天的交易量至少有1.2萬億美元,比英鎊在1992年時的交易量要大得多,何况歐盟維護歐元的決心也大,不過由於當年索羅斯就是靠大舉沽空英鎊一舉成名,他的言論仍極具影響力。華爾街日報
http://hk.news.yahoo.com/article/100226/4/grbw.html

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